thecareerbeat.com Blog

Video: Job market update

Here is a clip of my appearance last week on ABC News Now, talking about the latest unemployment report and the Yahoo! HotJobs survey results about job seeker pessimism:

ABC News clip

Some decent news on the December unemployment figures

One of the first headlines I saw after the government’s report on unemployment this morning was: “Job creation hopes dashed in December.” And the loss of 85,000 jobs was treated as a huge disappointment.

Really?! Did economists really expect positive job growth in December? The fact that the number was under 100K was still a sign that we’re going in the right direction, and the 4^th quarter monthly average (about 70K) is much lower than any quarter in 2009.

And the fact that the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised November’s numbers so that jobs were actually CREATED (+4K) was a big surprise.  I never expected to see a month in 2009 with an overall job gain.

Of course, losing thousands of jobs is still bad, and nobody is happy that the unemployment rate stayed at 10 percent.

But with more gains in health care (+35K), professional and business services (+50K), and temporary jobs (+47K), we have some hopeful indication that, overall, the job market is moving in the right direction.  It’s not as fast as many would like, but change is usually gradual.

And other factors may be adding to that gradual improvement in 2010:

• 1 in 3 hiring managers and recruiters said they expect to increase hiring in 2010 over last year. (Yahoo! HotJobs survey)
• Hiring will make moderate strides in January. Though job opportunities remain limited, January marks the third straight month that hiring will exceed layoffs on an annual basis in manufacturing and services. (Society of Human Resources Management)

Movie of the moment: ‘Up in the Air’

This new comedy with bleak undertones follows a dashing corporate downsizer (George Clooney) as he flies around the country to do the dirty work of handing out pink slips.  The film also examines the impact of being laid off, dramatized by several characters at various points in the film.

I haven’t seen it yet (can’t wait), but here’s what some reviewers say:

“Crisply funny and fleetly paced, it’s in its quiet way one of the saddest things in the theaters all year. … It soars.” (Amy Biancolli, SF Chronicle)

“One of the pleasures of “Up in the Air” is that its actresses — including Anna Kendrick, who plays Bingham’s colleague Natalie — share the frame with Mr. Clooney as equals, not props.” (Manohla Dargis, NY Times)

“It’s a rare and sparkling gem of a movie.” (Owen Glieberman, Entertainment Weekly)

BLS on the bright side: November 2009

I had the idea last night to do a quick monthly take on the positive aspects of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly report of the employment situation, since they are often not reported.

Little did I know that today’s data for November would be such a welcome surprise. The report was the most positive since December 2007.

Quick highlights:

• Unemployment dropped to 10% from 10.2% last month.
• Total job losses were 11,000.
• Temp jobs were up 52K (part of an overall business svcs increase of 86K).
• Health care jobs up 40K; department stores added 8K jobs.
• Job losses were revised significantly downward for Oct (111K from 190K) and Sept (139K from 239K).

I may add more highlights as I spend more time looking at the report.

Small indicators of better news on jobs front

Days before the government releases unemployment data for the month of November, a few harbingers have spread some hopeful news:

* The ADP National Employment Report shows that nonfarm private employment decreased by 169,000 jobs.  It’s the eighth consecutive month of declines in job losses.

* Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported employers announced fewer job cuts in November (50,349) than in any month since December 2007.

* The Conference Board reported an increase in job openings for November, up 106,500.  That follows a drop of 82,300 in October.

Some economists are predicting that unemployment for the month of November will remain flat at 10.2 percent.  That’s not exactly “Joy to the World” news, but I’ll take it.  Here’s hoping!

Rocker opens up about unemployment-themed video

Last week I wrote an article for Yahoo! HotJobs about a compelling new music video that features real unemployed people while trying to help them get hired. The video dramatizes the new single “Breathe” by Ryan Star, an emerging rock star whose debut album “11:59″ will drop in early 2010.

While doing my research, I gleaned interesting insights from Star that I was unable to use in the article, so here is more of the conversation, followed by a clip of the music video:

Tom Musbach: What do you hope is the message from your song and video for people who are struggling with unemployment?

Ryan Star: The essence of the song is that we’ll get through this together. That’s why the video has real people going through it right now; it puts a face to the problem. One of my best friends is in the video (the marketing professional), and I think that when you watch it you can in a way see someone you know. So I hope people take it personally and reach out those who they can help.

You collaborated on the video with artist Jonathan Lia. What surprised you about the making of this video or what surprises you about the final product?

Jonathan is brilliant and really executed the idea in a way that keeps the “real life” idea intact on film. When I watched the first cut I experienced something I never have with my own music. I got the chills. I thought, “Wow! This is great.” That’s the feeling I get when I watch others’ works that move me, so I felt so proud to watch it and be a part of it.

Your participation on the “Rock Star: Supernova” reality show was sort of like being in a long, public job interview before many “hiring managers” — the viewing public. What did you learn from that experience that could be applicable to other job seekers?

Well for starters don’t do what I do when they kicked me off of the show. I pretty much told Tommy Lee to f@*% off live on air. I am not a fan of burning bridges, but in this case they deserved it. They beat me up for weeks while the viewers had my back, and I felt like he had it out for me from the beginning.

What I truly learned was to be myself. I was on the show for one purpose and that was to do my best and let my true colors show. I knew at the end of the day I had to go back to New York after it all ended and had to hold my head up high with the work I did on the show. To this day I am proud of all of my performances on the TV show.

What was your first job as a paid employee?

My first real job was loading trucks at Jones Beach Amphitheatre on Long Island. The only real reason I was doing it was to try and sneak my demo tapes into the dressing rooms of all the big acts that came through every summer. The hours were insane and the pay was crap. Bumping into rock stars and moving their amps around was so humbling. I was so close to my dream every night, but on the wrong end of the totem pole.

For lasting salary damage, get hired in a recession

New grads entering the job market have come to expect that during touch economic times — like the present — they may have to settle for a lower salary to get a job. But that flexibility may result in income damage that could take nearly 20 years to overcome, according to new research.

A Depressing Discovery

By equating salaries for new hires to the unemployment rate, a Yale professor calculates that students who graduate during a downturn earn 6-8% less in their first year for each percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate.

That means a 1982 graduate entering the job market when unemployment stood at 10.8% earned, on average, 23% less than a 1981 grad who entered the job market when the jobless rate was 7.5%, according to the blog Daily Finance.

The research, conducted by Lisa Kahn, assistant professor of economics at the Yale School of Management, suggests that the disadvantage may take years to overcome. For example, new hires during a recession may be more reluctant to look for another job, which could bring a salary bump.

“Over 17 years after college those groups have a $100,000 difference in earnings,” Kahn said.

What about the Class of 2009?

The National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE) just released a list of the top jobs (with salaries) for the Class of 2009. The big news was the emergence of teaching in the top spot.

The top five positions and starting salaries are: teaching ($35,496), management trainee ($41,353), financial/treasury analysis ($52,043), consulting ($56,472), sales ($41,577).

2009 marked the first time in several years that the public sector landed the top spot. And public sector jobs generally pay less than those in the private sector, as NACE’s executive director Marilyn Mackes said.

No surprise: the NACE press release also noted that the average starting salary for new college graduates fell this year. The average starting salary offer for a 2009 bachelor’s degree recipient is $48,633. That comes in at 1.2% less than the $49,224 average offer extended to members of the Class of 2008.

A Broader Perspective

Does this mean new grads are financially screwed for the next decade compared to their peers who are a year older?  Maybe — if you consider Kahn’s research in a vacuum.  But plenty of other factors play into the mix of anyone’s career and salary trajectories.

The Yale salary-comparison research offers a valuable piece of data, but — like the national unemployment rate — it’s not an absolute for every worker.

Kahn herself offers a great piece of advice in the Daily Finance interview: “Don’t accept the status quo.”

For more helpful resources on this salary issue, see these articles:

• Will the Recession Deflate Your Income Forever?
• 4 Types of Pay Cuts, and What You Can Do About Them
• Do You Dare Ask for a Raise in This Economy?

Labor Day surprise: Job dissatisfaction rises

One of the interesting things about this recession has been the modest rise in job satisfaction in a number of polls: People have been happy just to have a job, for the most part.

But that sentiment may be shifting as the economic tide starts to turn, according to a new survey by Adecco.

Workers’ dissatisfaction with their employers gravitates toward three areas: compensation, retention efforts, and career growth.

• 66% are not satisfied with their current compensation
• 78% are not satisfied with the company’s overall retention efforts
• 76% are not satisfied with career growth opportunities at the company

I would have thought that more than two-thirds of workers would report dismay over their compensation. After all, 2009 was the Year of the Salary Freeze.

I’m a little surprised by the overall job dissatisfaction reported in the Adecco survey. The findings contrast a similar survey by Yahoo! HotJobs at the end of 2008 (see article), in which 38% of workers said they were “very satisfied” with their jobs, a bump from 28% percent in 2007. Also, a study by SHRM in June 2009 found that 40% were “very satisfied” with their jobs.

“What workers are telling us is that even during a recession, just having a job does not equate to job satisfaction,” said Bernadette Kenny, chief career officer, Adecco Group North America.

True enough; hiring is still happening. But even though some economists say we’re closer to an economic recovery, it seems too early to tell — at least from the job-market perspective. It’s still VERY competitive out there for job seekers.

If you’re not yet ready to jump from a job you’re not crazy about, here are some resources that might help:

• How to Love the Job You Have
• Keep Your Job: 5 Ways to Be Indispensable
• How to Avoid Sabotaging Your Job

Nearly a third of U.S. already at 10% unemployment

New July unemployment figures show that 15 states have already reached 10% unemployment, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Many economists and pundits have focused like vultures on the national jobless rate rising to 10% this year, as if crossing that threshold might signal a new level of doom.

We’re already there in 30% of the states and the District of Columbia. Double-digit unemployment is dreadful, but does it feel much different to the average jobless person who is struggling with the current national 9.4% jobless rate?

The Stand-Out States

Michigan continued to have the highest rate: 15%. Rounding out the top five are Rhode Island (12.7%), Nevada (12.5%), California and Oregon (11.9% each). The rates in California, Nevada, and Rhode Island, set new series highs.

The West has the highest regional jobless rate, at 10.5%, followed by the Midwest, at 10.2%.

The states with the lowest unemployment rates: North Dakota (4.2%), Nebraska and South Dakota (4.9%), Utah (6%), Iowa, Oklahoma, and Wyoming (6.5% each).

Getting Off the Jobless Roll

Whatever state you live in, the job market is likely very competitive — probably worse than you have ever experienced. If you are unemployed, consider these tips:

Be flexible. Look outside your usual industry, location, or experience level. Even a part-time job is a job, and what you make of the experience can bring you closer to your next career-building job.

Commit yourself to daily action. Looking for work should be your full-time job. Set daily or weekly goals. Get dressed and put yourself in a professional mindset, and be ready for phone calls that could be initial interviews.

Network as much as possible. Recruiters believe this is the best job-hunting tool, and it works. Reach out to everyone you know, and attend workshops and relevant professional events. Also make use of professional networking sites to expand your contacts, market yourself, and learn about new opportunities.

For more, I recommend these articles:

• Social Networking Basics for Job Hunters
• Keywords Can Make or Break Your Resume
• The Online Essentials for Your Job Search

And, just for fun, check out this analysis/prediction on “Why Unemployment (Probably) Won’t Hit 10%.”

What a difference a month makes

The unemployment report for July was a bit of a surprise, as the jobless rate dropped a fraction instead of rising, as most economists expected. The news cheered investors last week and gave many of us a new ray of hope about an economic recovery.

But this week had new reports (slumping retail sales, a jump in foreclosures and first-time unemployment claims) that made the outlook cloudy once again.

“It’s going to be a recovery that only a statistician can love,” as Wells Fargo senior economist Mark Vitner said recently.

Nonetheless I am intrigued by Nate Silver’s analysis (at fivethirtyeight.com) of July’s jobless report. He basically uses the month’s data to argue why the unemployment rate WILL NOT go to 10%, as most economists predict.

Here’s a graph that outlines his projection, based on the difference between June and July jobless data.

The model is relatively simple, and Silver rightly cautions that none of us should put too much stock in economic forecast models. And he may have to thank all the long-term unemployed folks who’ve stopped looking for work — their departure contributed to July’s decrease to 9.4%.

Silver basically predicts that the recession doesn’t have enough gas to get us to 10% unemployment. Cross your fingers. All we can do is wait and watch.